By Hoyt Tuggle | In modern times, political primaries seem to be a better indication of undercurrents in American political life than do general elections.
Tuggle
Goldwater’s success in the primaries and utter defeat in the general election in 1964 led to a temporary comeback for the GOP establishment with Nixon and his Southern strategy in 1968 and 1972.
Eugene McCarthy’s strong showing in the early primaries of 1968 led to Johnson’s withdrawal from the race and the entrance of Robert Kennedy and Hubert Humphrey.
The fractured Democrats led to Humphrey’s defeat and George McGovern’s nomination and utter defeat in 1972. Non-establishment Carter won in 1976 and non-establishment Reagan won in 1980 and 1984. By then Reagan had become the establishment. The first Bush was basically an extension of Reagan. Bill Clinton was neither establishment nor non-establishment, but became the establishment much as Reagan did.
The next fracture came in 2008 with Obama’s overthrowing the Clinton establishment. That leaves us with today. Will history’s pattern prevail? I think not!
Both political parties are being fractured at the same time. That’s something different! The GOP’s Southern strategy, which has become a national strategy, is unraveling. The GOP establishment’s using, and thus abusing, of this constituency is real and has boiled over into a real insurgency. The genie is out of the bottle.
The Democrats are facing a similar insurgency. As Obama overthrew the establishment in 2008 so may Sanders do the same in 2016. Where the GOP establishment came back in 1968, establishment Clinton may not.
(This is written before the caucuses in Nevada and the Republican primary in South Carolina. Whatever the results, some things remain constant.)
Presidential elections are determined neither by facts nor rationality. They are often determined by either fear or hope. It is fairly easy, at this point, to feel that the fear of unwanted change, manifesting itself as anger, pervades the Republican Party. Only Kasich is running on hope. If he can hang on until the Ohio primary, he has an outside shot.
Where are the Democrats? I don’t see hope here either. Sanders, should he win the general election, would have less chance than Obama in getting anything he has promised accomplished. It’s zero chance, in my opinion. Clinton is running on the fear of what will happen if the GOP is successful.
Where does that leave us? In the primaries I don’t know. In the general election, if it’s Clinton versus anybody but Rubio-Kasich, then Clinton wins.
With either Rubio or Kasich, we have a blast out of the past, such as Kennedy-Johnson 1960. The similarities are many. Kennedy ran for an open seat previously held by a two-term president of the opposing party; a young, and young looking, highly articulate charismatic candidate, who is/was not fully accepted by a large segment of his party. He was given party credibility by an older proven member of the establishment (Johnson).
Most importantly for Rubio or Kasich, both are most popular in their home states, arguably the two largest swing states. Only by carrying these states can the GOP overcome the advantage the Democrats have in the Electoral College.
These are exciting, if not very unsettling, times.
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