By Elliott Brack
Editor and Publisher, GwinnettForum
NOV. 5, 2024 | Many Gwinnettians will be watching the elections tonight, and maybe into Wednesday morning, to determine who will be our next president.
Today GwinnettForum will provide you with tools to make understanding the returns more meaningful.
In addition, we will also provide you with an outline national map of the states, so that you can color in when one candidate gets a majority of votes to win the electoral vote in each state. You probably won’t start filling in the space until at least 9 p.m. or 10 p.m. from the eastern states. You will have to wait until Wednesday morning for the western states. You will also find an already-colored in state-by-state map with GwinnettForum’s prediction of how the electoral college vote will go.
Now let’s turn to the results from the last three presidential elections in Gwinnett County.
Chart One, above, shows that in the 2020 election, Joe Biden won Gwinnett, getting 58 percent of the vote, to Donald Trump’s 40 percent. While there were 150,532 more people registered in Gwinnett, the Democratic candidate, Biden, scored 75,841 more votes than Hilary Clinton got in 2016, while Republican Trump increased his vote from 2016 by only 16,411 votes.
And note that Mitt Romney got more votes in 2012 than Trump did in 2016.
More observations from this chart:
- There were 187,000 more people registered to vote in 2020 than in 2012.
The year 2016 saw the highest turnout of voters, 77 percent. But in the other two years, the turning was 75 percent (2012) and 72 percent (2020.)- We also know that in 2024, we have 663,451 registered in Gwinnett, which is 81,984 more than in 2020. Whew!
We have two more charts to share with you.
Chart Two, above at right, shows the percentage of the presidential votes in Gwinnett. The Republican Party has fallen off significantly in presidential votes in Gwinnett since 2012, when that reached 58 percent, and was down to only 40 percent of the vote in 2020.
Chart Three, at right, details the actual number of votes the two parties received. While both party’s vote totals have gone up, the Republicans in 2020 were up only about three percent over 2012 (from about 153,000 to 155,000), while the Democrats found a big increase in 2012 (about 140,000 votes ) to the 2020 total of about 100,000 more, or 240,000! Yes, 2020 showed that in both local offices, and in the presidential votes, Gwinnett was heavily Democratic.
So, let’s turn to prediction. We’ll show you what we think will happen, and you might like to try your hand at predicting which candidate will win the individual state’s electoral vote.
Here’s a graphic of how we predict the election.
Finally at the top of the Forum is that blank map for you to fill in with your own predictions. Good luck to you in wishing you luck in this prediction.
Seems to us like every four years, the presidential campaign is no longer just a regular routine presidential election, but is becoming ever so more downright mean. Granted, it’s always been a hard ball matter, but never have we seen it so vicious as in 2024.
Perhaps part of the answer is because Georgia is now a battleground state, and we are flooded in every media with hard-core advertising, even interrupting our cherished football games. Though not a player in social media, we hear these political advertisements are also bombarding these areas.
For sure, we will be more relaxed and happy without the constant blast of those political advertisements.
May your candidate win!
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