By Jack Bernard, contributing columnist
PEACHTREE CITY, Ga. | Because of Donald Trump’s personality and divisive rhetoric, all eyes are on the 2024 presidential race.
But there’s a second race most important to our country. The Senate currently has 49 Republicans, 49 Democrats and two independents who caucus with the Democrats (Senators Angus King and Bernie Sanders). All the GOP needs is to win one race to tie the Senate, or two flips of seats to give the Republicans control of the Senate.
Now to look at individual state races that could turn the Senate.
In red West Virginia, Senator Joe Manchin correctly decided he could not win against his GOP Senate opponent, the popular Governor Jim Justice. Only the party faithful even know the name of the Democrat (Glenn Elliott) who is running against. So count West Virginia as one GOP turn-over, making the count 50-50.
Montana’s Senator Jon Tester is a rancher with rural roots. He’s well-liked, but a Democrat in another solidly red state. He’s running against a formidable young opponent, charismatic Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL, who is endorsed by Trump. If Montana turns red, that will give the GOP a 51-49 advantage.
In red Ohio, respected pro-union Democrat Senator Sherrod Brown is running for reelection. His opposition is Bernie Moreno, supported by Trump. Larger cities will all go for the Democrat. However, rural areas are headed red in Ohio. Brown has lost these counties in past races, but by far smaller margins than the national Democratic candidates. How well Brown will do, the only Democrat in Ohio to win statewide, is anyone’s guess. But his battle is clearly uphill and may give the GOP another seat, making it 52-48.
Although the state leans blue, Michigan has another open seat that could swing either way. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat, is running against former Rep. Mike Rogers, a relative moderate in today’s ReTrumpican Party. Almost every survey has Slotkin ahead. However, the Muslim population of Michigan is the largest in the nation. Kamala Harris is being pressured to take a stronger stand against Israel, and Slotkin is Jewish. It would not surprise me if this race were much closer than polling predictions, but Michigan should remain blue.
Arizona Senator Krysten Sinema is an unpopular Democrat turned independent, who’s not running. Arizona was solid red a short while back. But even though inflation and immigration are the top issues for Arizona voters, that has changed. The Democrats have nominated a popular Hispanic, Rep. Ruben Gallego, while the GOP has doubled down on a far-right candidate, television personality Kari Lake. Chances are that the race will go Democratic. Given a clear choice, voters of both parties may want a “normal” person representing them, so Gallego is favored.
Maryland has been solidly blue for a long time and will probably have yet another Democrat as Senator, with Prince Georgia Executive Angela Alsobrooks their candidate. However, Governor Larry Hogan is a widely admired Republican who just might pick up an upset against a lesser-known Democrat. His biggest problem is Trump heading the national ticket, and many people just voting Democrat all the way down.
Finally, these Democratic senators, Nevada (Jacky Rosen), Pennsylvania (Bob Casey) and Wisconsin (Tammy Baldwin), all should keep their states blue with the incumbents winning.
So, to add up, the Senate almost certainly will turn Republican in 2024, perhaps 52-48. The exact count will depend on how much of an impact the presidential candidates have on Senate elections.
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