By Randy Brunson
SUWANEE, Ga. | Does the stock market care who wins the presidential election? Not at all. Let’s take a walk through history.
From 1923 to 1929, “Silent Cal,” Republican Calvin Coolidge, was our president. During this time, Republicans controlled both houses of Congress. From January 1, 2026, our earliest data, until the end of Coolidge’s term, $100 in the S&P 500 would have grown to $233. The man for whom “the business of America is business” oversaw a booming stock market.
Brunson
Note that all future growth numbers use the S&P 500 as a proxy for the stock market.
When Herbert Hoover, also a Republican, was president, there was a Republican senate and split House. Your $100 when he took office was worth just $28 at the end of February 1933.
Democrat Franklin Delano Roosevelt served more than three terms with both houses of Congress controlled by Democrats. World War II saw a lifting of the stock market from the challenges of the Great Depression. $100 invested in March 1933 became $461 in March 1945, though realize you would have had to stay invested for twelve years. Few of us can see beyond five years.
Democrat Harry Truman, with a split Congress, saw $100 grow to $310 from 1945-1953. Republican Dwight Eisenhower, with a split Congress, had a similar gain, $100 to $305. John F. Kennedy, with a Democratic Congress, saw little gain, from $100 to $139. LBJ with a Democratic Congress , was a little better, $100 to $166. Republican Nixon with a Democratic Congress, saw a losing dollar, $100 to $92. Ford, with a Democratic Congress, went from $100 to $151.
Jimmy Carter, with a solid Democratic Congress, saw $100 grow to $155 in four years.
Ronald Reagan, with a split Senate and Democratic Congress, had a nice gain of $100 to $289. George Bush Senior, with a Democratic Congress, was $100 to $179. Clinton, with a split Congress, had a big gain, $100 to $386. Bush Junior, with a split Congress,- $100 lost to $79. Obama, with a split Congress, saw a jump of $100 to $294. Trump, with a Republican Senate and split House, gained from $100 to $181. And Biden with a Democratic Senate and split House, was $100 to $133, as of the end of 2023. So far the Biden presidency is trending well.
TENURE: Of these 17 presidents referenced, only Trump, Bush Senior, Carter, Ford, Nixon, Kennedy, and Hoover served less than two full terms. And only Kennedy and Ford served less than one term. The point? Stock market investing is a long game, meaning more than a few months. We recommend an absolute minimum of a five-year horizon.
OUTCOME BY PARTY: During only three of the 17 referenced administrations was the S&P 500 down for the tenure of the president. These were Hoover, Nixon, and Bush Junior, all Republicans. And two of those three, Hoover and Nixon, served less than two terms. Does this speak to Republican governance or shortness of tenure? If you make the assessment by which party is in the White House, history might suggest we are better off with Democratic presidents.
TAKE AWAY: There are two lessons from all this for me. First is to mentally recognize that the stock market has no particular link to the political party in power. There is no correlation. The second? Time. Stay invested, don’t panic, allow time to do its most excellent work when it comes to investing in the stock market.
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