“The Kennedy voter and the Trump voter…our mutual enemy is Biden. …We put our vote to Bobby and at least get rid of Biden and give those 28 electoral votes in New York to Bobby, rather than to Biden… If nobody gets to 270 (electoral votes), then Congress picks the president…Who are they going to pick, if it’s a Republican Congress? They’ll pick Trump. So, we’re rid of Biden either way.“- Rita Palma, New York consultant for RFK, Jr. campaign (who says she voted for Trump twice).
By Jack Bernard, contributing columnist
(Part 2 of 2 parts)
PEACHTREE CITY, Ga. | I believe Rita Palma is smoking something (that is still illegal here in Georgia) if she really believes that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. can win the state of New York and thus cause neither major candidate (Trump and Biden) to get enough electoral votes to win. That is wishful thinking and braggadocio on the part of a clear Trump supporter poorly disguised as an RFK Jr. election staffer.
However, RFK Jr. will be a major factor in three other northern states, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. And RFK Jr could potentially throw the election to Trump, even if Trump substantially loses the popular vote nationally (as he did in 2016), because of the Electoral College.
Pennsylvania is a big state with 20 electoral votes. Biden prevailed by a little over one percent with nearly seven million votes cast. With 10 electoral votes, Wisconsin was closer still (0.6 percent). Madison and Milwaukee are the key Biden strongholds, enabling Biden to win by over 20,000 votes. Michigan’s 16 electoral votes went for Biden in 2020. But he only won by 155,000 votes (under a three percent difference).
Once again, if RFK, Jr. and Cornel West are on the ballot in these states, chances are that at least two-thirds of the votes that they get would have gone to Biden. With the left-wing reaction to the Gaza war, West could get as many votes as RFK Jr., given that there are segments of the population that are very progressive in places like Madison, Lansing and Philadelphia. If the RFK Jr. plus West vote total is significant in any of these states, Biden will lose to Trump in that state.
There are 538 total electoral votes. 270 or more are needed to win the presidency. If Trump had gotten 38 more electoral votes in 2020, he would still be president. Let’s assume that Trump wins the same red states that he won in 2020, plus the swing state of North Carolina (giving him 232 electoral votes).
Another 79 electoral votes could come from these states that Biden barely won in 2020- Georgia (16), Arizona (11), Nevada (6), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10), and Michigan (16).
From a recent Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, Biden is currently losing each state to Trump in a two way race. In Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, Trump is ahead by six percent. In Wisconsin he is ahead by four percent and in Michigan by two percent.
But it is not going to be a two-way race if third parties are involved.
Again, third parties will likely pull more votes from Biden than from Trump. The bottom line is that with these third-party candidates running, it might take a major miracle for Biden to win in 2024.
- Have a comment? Send to: elliott@brack.net
Follow Us