“It’s as if in politics, as in economics, we have a privileged one percent. Without the Electoral College. every vote would be worth exactly the same. That would be a step toward democracy.”
– Cathy O’Neil, “Weapons of Math Destruction: How Big Data Increases Inequality and Threatens Democracy”
By Jack Bernard
(Part 1 of two parts)
PEACHTREE CITY, Ga. | As a former Republican Party elected official in Georgia and county party chair, I left the GOP and became an active Democrat because Trump is a narcissist would-be dictator. He puts the good of himself before our nation. But I believe he will be elected because of Biden’s continuing inability to adequately publicize his many achievements, plus the influence of third-party candidates in select swing states.
In 2020, Joe Biden got seven million more votes than Trump. But in the complicated, out-of-date, undemocratic U.S. Presidential election system, the national popular vote count is irrelevant. Electoral College votes, determined state by state, decide who wins the presidency. Biden got 306 versus 232 for Trump (a difference of 74 electoral votes). But it was still a close election from the Electoral College point of view.
There were six key swing states which gave Biden the 2020 Presidential election: Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The seventh swing state, North Carolina, went for Trump.
Here is how Trump will probably win the Presidency in 2024 by prevailing in most swing states if everything else is equal. Let’s start by analyzing Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.
- Georgia: In 2020, Biden won Georgia by less than 12,000 votes (0.3 percent), the only deep South state to go blue. Georgia has 16 electoral votes.
- Arizona has 11 electoral votes. As in Georgia, Biden barely won (0.4 percent), winning by less than 11,000 votes.
- Nevada: In terms of votes, this state was even closer. Trump lost by 4,000 votes. Nevada has six electoral votes.
A third party want-to-be, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (a way-out vaccine denier) should be able to qualify in almost all states as a presidential candidate in 2024. His name alone will mean that many Democrats in these states will be tempted to vote for him, especially older African Americans who remember the civil rights legacy of RFK and JFK.
In addition, Cornel West is running on the far left, pulling away extreme progressives and younger voters concerned about the Middle East. On the other hand, the MAGA base voters will not vote for anyone but Trump. And, few traditional Republicans voters will vote for RFK, Jr. versus Trump.
If RFK Jr gets two percent of the vote in Georgia and Arizona, with two-thirds coming at Biden’s expense, then, Biden will lose these two states. If RFK gets three percent and Cornel West one percent in Arizona, with two-thirds coming from Biden voters, Biden will lose this state’s six electoral votes.
In the coming issue, we will analyze the Northern states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. All were very close presidential races in 2020 and are expected to help determine who wins in 2024.
- Have a comment? Send to: elliott@brack.net
Follow Us