By George Wilson
STONE MOUNTAIN, Ga. | Let me predict that Vladimir Putin has not long left for this world. The ruble is being pumped up high by Russian reserves, but when the Western sanctions bite hard the Russian economy will tank and then the Russian people will revolt again. Or one of his generals will reach for his revolver.
This will most dramatically take place in December when the G7 imposes a price limit on the amount the Russians can charge internationally for oil. The G7 will be cleverly using the tool of insurance on shipping to make the prices stick. If Russia ships sail without insurance, they would be responsible for oil spills, accidents and any other incidents. The shipping companies will not like this.
Right now Russia is giving a 30 percent discount on oil to India and China to maintain a market. Russia accounts for about 10 percent of the world’s supply of oil. Although the United States buys no oil from Russia, prices are determined internationally, hence with the price limitations on Russian oil imposed by the G7 and the resulting downward price pressure on oil. So, we could be seeing a further price reduction in gas prices at the pump.
Russia has little choice; the nature of the oil business is to maintain a level of production that will keep its facilities working properly. Moreover, Russia gets 60 percent of its revenue from petroleum to run its government, therefore it must keep pumping.
Finally, many authors, such as John Sweeney’s Killers in the Kremlin, have provided convincing and compelling evidence of Putin’s guilt and responsibility in a never-ending saga of murder, extortion, oppression, and grand-scale plutocracy. Throughout its history Russia has been plagued by misrule by the unabashed scums of the earth, whether tsarist, communist, or klepto-psychopaths.
It is to be regretted that in the West we have been ruled by a succession of leaders, who have been always eager to believe the best of their Russian contemporaries. These Western leaders for too long failed to acknowledge the face of evil that is Putin. As an example, remember Trump’s sycophantic performance to Putin in front of the world.
With the demise of Putin, there is only one course of action for the Russian generals and or the oligarchs to take. Keep in mind that 100 oligarchs own about 40 percent of all the wealth in Russia, so they have enormous power. They can blame the war and its failure on Putin and point out to the Russian people his lies and deceit, and maybe even put him on trial. This could also cause huge unrest among the populace, given the unending propaganda the Russians have been receiving from the state. In our own country we have seen how effective this is with Fox and other right-wing media continuing to promote Trump’s false claims that he won the election.
In addition, those in future power in Russia should move immediately to release all political prisoners and restore the independent media. These courses of action would be extremely difficult if not impossible. But even more difficult would be giving up Crimea in negotiations with the Ukrainians. That would be something the average Russian citizen would strongly object to.
So, the outcome is extremely murky and dangerous, not only for Russia, but for the world. Yet Russia needs to move to remove Putin so Russia can move ahead internally and return to be the world power it wants.
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