By Elliott Brack
Editor and Publisher, GwinnettForum
JULY 7, 2020 | While it appears that Gwinnett County could see many of its local offices land in the Democratic column come November, that’s most likely not true of the majority of the counties in Georgia. While the larger cities of the state may report in the Democratic column, much of the state, including the Legislature, will no doubt remain in control of the Republican Party.
Brack, by Frank Sharp
After all, many incumbent members of the Legislature either have no opponents or weak ones. For Democrats to take control of the Georgia House and Senate may take several more General Elections, if and when it may occur.
Yet there remains a question of how Georgians will vote in the national presidential race. President Trump won Georgia with a 5.7 percent victory (51.3 percent) over Hillary Clinton (45.6 percent). Remember, Libertarian Gary Johnson got 3.1 percent of the Georgia vote. The president’s margin of victory was lower than the two previous Republican presidential candidates, Mitt Romney and John McCain.
Now, start looking to November. Many people think that the Georgia presidential voting will be close. Many figure that Donald Trump will win again in Georgia. But Democrat Joe Biden is coming on strong.
The 270ToWin site shows 10 different stateside polls, and altogether, they show no clear picture. Six predict a close Biden victory. Four show a Trump win, one as much as by 11 percent. Go to https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/georgia/ to check it out. Take your pick of the polls.
Now overlay this with the heavy Democratic primary turnout in 2020. In some area counties, the Democrats were turning out twice as strong as Republicans. In Gwinnett County, there were 101,903 Democratic voters for president, with Joe Biden getting 85,688 votes. For the Republicans, Donald Trump polled 57,897.
A similar result took place in another suburban area, as normally Republican Cobb County scored 63,696 votes for the president, and the Democratic presidential votes totaled 100,896. Joe Biden got 89,811 of these.
Fulton, Clayton and DeKalb Counties of Metro Atlanta are normally Democratic counties. This means that the suburban counties of Atlanta will probably give Joe Biden a big lead in the November voting. That brings the question: what will the mid-size and rural counties do?
The other day we saw the returns from small Early County, in deep southwest Georgia. The presidential returns really surprised us, particularly how well Joe Biden did there. He polled 1,172 votes. There were only two other Democrats that got presidential votes: Michael Bennet got 37 votes and Bernie Sanders won 98. So, Democrats scored 1,307 votes in Early County. President Trump got 1,241 votes.
What? President Trump lost a South Georgia county in the primary voting count? Up until now, we had assumed that our sitting president would do well in South Georgia, to overcome what he would lose in Metro Atlanta.
Realize this is looking at voting in only one small rural county. This indication may be significant. It has implications for the national scene, as Georgia will vote on not the usual one Senate seat this fall, but vote on both Senate seats. Is this Trump negative margin going to have implications for control of the Senate?
Not only that, but how about the Georgia Legislature? Is the now-in-control Republican Party vulnerable this fall? We don’t think so….but no doubt the way President Trump is handling his office these days, not only politically but with the pandemic crisis, it gives you more room to wonder.
The upcoming General Election suddenly takes on new vibrations.
- Have a comment? Send to: elliott@brack.net
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