By Elliott Brack, editor and publisher | The direction our nation will take over the next three years may very well be guided by what happens in the November, 2018 election.
Will our nation remain led by President Trump, who we presume will get the Repblican nomination in 2020 to fill a second term? Or will some Democrat emerge from their ranks to upset the Trump applecart, and return our nation to a quieter regime?
From two distinct recent turns, we might be seeing the way the 2020 election may develop.
First, consider that there are many, many members of the Congress, more than normal, who have already announced that they will not be candidates in the fall elections. So far the count is staggering, and highly unusual.
Three Republican Senators say they will not run for election in November. This includes Bob Corker of Tennessee, Jeff Flake of Arizona and Orin Hatch of Utah. However, no Democratic Senators have said they will not be a candidate this fall.
For the House of Representatives, as of January 31, a total of 49 representatives (11.2 percent of the 435 members) have announced that they will not to run for re-election.
That includes 34 members of the Republican Party, and 15 members of the Democratic Party. Of those 49 representatives, 30 are not only not running, but are also retiring from public office. Of those 30, 22 are Republican and eight are Democrats. No Georgians are on the list of representatives who will not seek office again.
We get these statistics from the online site, Ballotpedia. To see the names of the House members, go to go to https://ballotpedia.org/List_of_U.S._Congress_incumbents_who_are_not_running_for_re-election_in_2018.
So, how will this affect our government?
With 22 incumbent Republican Congressmen not running, this seems to give the Democrats an additional possibility of winning those offices. With 435 House members, there are currently 238 Republicans in the House, and 193 Democrats (plus four vacancies). The Democrats would have to win 25 seats (and should they keep all 193) to have a one vote majority. But with so many Republicans not seeking election, it gives the Democrats a chance, granted a far-flung chance, of winning the House in 2018.
Then, with the Republicans in the Senate having 51-49 majority (with independents voting with the Democrats), another win by a Democrat would mean a 50-50 split in the Senate. Since the vice president would break such a tie, the Democrats would have to win two more seats to take control. But it could happen.
In other words, politics could become even dicier.
So, the election this fall could tell us if the Congress will continue to be controlled by the Republicans. And if the Democrats should prevail by winning either house in 2018, that would be even more of a problem for President Trump, and might point to the Democrats taking it all in 2020.
- Have a comment? Send to: elliott@brack.net
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