By Elliott Brack, editor and publisher | Virtually overlooked in the hullabaloo of Britain leaving the European Union is the fact that it’s not yet a done deal. After all the referendum was not binding. While a 52-48 split is pretty substantial, it was not a binding referendum.
A recent New York Times story pointed out four possible outcomes after the vote. They are interesting, and could reverberate for years, affecting world commerce.
The key points:
- Not binding: the process for Britain to leave the European Union must be initiated by British prime minister invoking Article 50 of the Union’s governing treaty. With a lame-duck prime minister (who was against Brexit) staying in office until October, there’s no indication that he will suggest a change. One potential successor is against Brexit, and even London Mayor Boris Johnson now seems to back-peddle. In other words, this prime minister office question, backed by a majority Parliament that was not for Brexit, could delay such a move indefinitely.
2. A second possibility is also looming: the House of Lords in April said that a decision to leave the European Union would have to be approved by the Parliaments of Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales. While Wales supported Brexit, and Northern Ireland’s Parliament leadership favors leaving the Union, there’s Scotland to consider. But Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain within the European Union. In addition, Scotland is still wanting another vote on removing itself from Britain. So, there are complications here which could come into play.
3. Another possibility: look what happened in Denmark. That was in 1992, when Danish voters rejected a referendum on joining one of the European Union treaties. All looked like Denmark would not become an EU member. However, 11 months later, the Danes turned around, and this time OK’d the proposal, and joined the union. Who’s to say that Britain might not have a second vote, and with second thoughts, might not vote to sever ties with the EU this time?
4. How about other deals? With two years to go before terms for negotiating a end of relationship with the European Union, Britain could take all sorts of steps in different agreements with the EU. For instance, perhaps striking agreements that are now in place, without itself considered a full partner with the EU, but in effect, keeping some, not all, formalities as they are now?
Given the gravity of the discussion, it could be that those at one time opposing the move out of the European Union are now having second thoughts. “Maybe it was rash,” might be one thought.
Or another: “What if Britain sought to forge a new agreement on immigration, so that it would not entirely follow the EU in this regard?” Both the EU and Britain might consider this a fair approach.
There might be another consideration. After all, the vote recently caused all kinds of turmoil in world markets, rocking the stock markets, raising questions about the value of the pound sterling relative to other currencies, and in general causing unrest throughout the world. This vast impact will mean that many people will be seeking the high ground, not wanting to see a spiral of economies that could substantially undercut the governing bodies of many nations, and causing unrest.
So the British exit from the EU, while it looks possible, may take new turns and twists we cannot conceive now.
Follow Us